New Zealand vs France betting tips: Predictions and odds for Nations Championship clash
A new era begins for the All Blacks as Dave Rennie takes charge of his first Test when New Zealand host France in the opening match of the Nations Championship.
Ardie Savea captains a side blending proven internationals with exciting new faces, while France arrive without several key stars following the Top 14 final.
Although Les Bleus retain dangerous attacking weapons in Damian Penaud, Matthieu Jalibert and Maxime Lucu, the All Blacks appear to hold a significant advantage in the forward battle heading into the weekend.
All betting lines provided per Hollywood Bets.
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Match analysis
The biggest difference between these two teams is likely to be physicality.
New Zealand's front row of Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor and Fletcher Newell brings considerable Test experience, while Ardie Savea remains one of world rugby's most influential loose forwards.
Behind the scrum, Cam Roigard, Ruben Love and Jordie Barrett reunite the Hurricanes' championship-winning 9-10-12 combination, giving the All Blacks an established playmaking connection despite entering a new coaching era.
France's situation is very different.
Several first-choice players including Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Thomas Ramos, Emmanuel Meafou and Thibaud Flament are unavailable - leaving a relatively inexperienced forward pack to face one of rugby's toughest away assignments.
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Best Bet
New Zealand to win (0.22)
The outright odds are understandably short.
The All Blacks possess greater continuity, superior forward depth and home advantage.
France's backline should create moments through Jalibert and Penaud, but sustaining pressure without their strongest pack will be difficult.
Prediction: New Zealand to win.
Value Bet
New Zealand by 15+ (1.25)
This looks to be one of the strongest value markets available.
If New Zealand establish dominance at scrum time and around the breakdown, France may struggle to maintain territory throughout the second half.
The All Blacks' bench should also increase the physical pressure as the match progresses.
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Team totals
New Zealand Over 34.5 points (0.90)
The combination of Roigard's tempo, Love's attacking instincts and the finishing ability of Caleb Clarke and Will Jordan gives New Zealand plenty of scoring potential.
Against an inexperienced French pack, the All Blacks should create multiple opportunities inside the opposition 22.
Players to watch
Ardie Savea
Leading the All Blacks under Dave Rennie for the first time, Savea's influence will extend well beyond the captaincy.
Expect him to carry aggressively, compete relentlessly at the breakdown and set the physical tone from the opening whistle.
Ruben Love
Selected ahead of Beauden Barrett, Love has been handed one of the biggest opportunities of his career.
His understanding with Cam Roigard and Jordie Barrett could help New Zealand settle quickly despite beginning a new coaching cycle.
Damian Penaud
France's record try-scorer returns at an important moment.
Even if opportunities are limited, Penaud remains capable of turning half-chances into points.
Matthieu Jalibert
France's attacking hopes largely rest with Jalibert's creativity.
If the fly-half can generate quick ball and release the outside backs, Les Bleus have enough quality to remain competitive.
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Betting tips
Best Bet: New Zealand to win (0.22)
Value Bet: New Zealand by 15+ (1.25)
Team Total: New Zealand Over 34.5 points (0.90)
Prediction
France possess enough attacking quality to threaten through Jalibert, Lucu and Penaud, but the absence of several established forwards significantly changes the complexion of this contest.
New Zealand's experienced front five, the leadership of Ardie Savea and the existing Hurricanes combinations in the backline should provide the platform for a strong opening performance under Dave Rennie.
Expect France to stay competitive early before the All Blacks' superior depth and physicality begin to tell.
Prediction: New Zealand 38-17 France.
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