UFC 330 betting tips: Islam Makhachev vs Ian Garry preview and predictions

Islam Makhachev faces Ian Machado Garry in Philadelphia at UFC 330 in the main event, with the champion heavily favoured to retain his welterweight title.

Makhachev is priced at 1.25 to win, with Garry available at 3.70, according to Betway odds.

Garry presents a genuine test because of his size, range and ability to defend himself on the ground, but Makhachev's sambo-heavy wrestling should give him the clearest route to victory.

Garry has a five-inch height and four-inch reach advantage, so keeping the fight at distance could be crucial to his chances.

Makhachev's wrestling is the key

The central question is whether Garry can consistently prevent Makhachev from establishing his preferred grappling exchanges.

Makhachev's ability to close distance, secure takedowns and maintain control makes him particularly difficult to deal with over 25 minutes. 

Garry has strong jiu-jitsu and excellent defensive instincts, but repeatedly defending against Makhachev's chain wrestling is a different proposition.

Makhachev has also dismissed suggestions that Garry represents his toughest challenge, while acknowledging the Irishman's striking and wrestling defence.

Garry's route to an upset

Garry's best chance is obvious: Keep the fight standing.

The Irishman is considerably larger at welterweight and possesses the movement and striking range to make Makhachev work at distance. 

If Garry can deny the takedowns and force Makhachev into a predominantly striking battle, his chances of winning a decision increase considerably.

That is the danger for anyone backing Makhachev to finish early. 

Garry does not need to dominate every exchange; he needs to prevent Makhachev from controlling the fight.

The decision market looks interesting

The odds have Makhachev by decision at 2.25, compared with 3.10 for submission and 8.80 for a knockout.

That makes the decision market particularly appealing given the match-up.

Makhachev has the tools to dominate the grappling exchanges without necessarily finding a finish, while Garry's defensive ability could force the champion to work through multiple rounds.

The wider market also has Over 4.5 rounds at 1.44 and the fight going the distance at 1.66, suggesting a competitive five-round contest is regarded as a realistic possibility.

READ MORE: UFC Oklahoma betting tips: Dricus du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman best bets and predictions

Makhachev can still find a finish

That does not mean a Makhachev finish should be ignored.

His submission price of 3.10 is considerably more attractive than the outright 1.25, particularly if he can repeatedly force Garry to defend from compromised positions.

A submission is more plausible than a knockout in this match-up, given the champion's grappling pedigree and Garry's defensive style.

The other interesting market is Makhachev by submission or points at 1.33, which covers the two outcomes I consider most likely while removing the need to predict the exact method.

Makhachev vs Garry prediction

I expect Makhachev to win, but I don't expect Garry to make it easy for him.

Garry's size, range and defensive ability make him one of Makhachev's more intriguing challenges since moving up to welterweight. 

However, over five rounds, the champion should eventually find enough opportunities to impose his wrestling and grappling.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev to win

Best bet: Makhachev by decision - 2.25

Alternative: Makhachev by submission - 3.10

Safer option: Makhachev by submission or points - 1.33

Final takeaways

If Garry can keep the fight standing for the majority of 25 minutes, he absolutely has a route to a decision upset.

But if Makhachev consistently gets his hands on him, the champion's control and positional grappling should ultimately decide the contest.

READ NEXT: UFC 329 main card betting tips and predictions: McGregor vs Holloway 2, Pimblett and Sandhagen