World Cup final betting tips: Can Spain's control overcome Argentina's championship pedigree?

The FIFA World Cup reaches its conclusion on Sunday as European champions Spain meet defending world champions Argentina at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Spain arrive after producing arguably the tournament's most complete performance in their semi-final victory over France, while Argentina showed once again why champions are so difficult to eliminate, coming from behind to beat England with a clinical late comeback.

The bookmakers have installed Spain as favourites, but defeating Lionel Messi and Argentina on football's biggest stage is never straightforward.

Best Bet: Spain to Win

Odds: 1.3

Spain deserve to be favourites.

Luis de la Fuente's side have controlled virtually every match throughout the tournament through intelligent possession, aggressive pressing and an outstanding midfield capable of dictating the tempo against any opponent.

Against France they demonstrated exactly why they are considered the tournament's most complete team, denying Les Bleus time on the ball while creating chances through patient build-up play.

Argentina will undoubtedly create moments of danger, but Spain's ability to dominate possession should give them the platform to control another major final.

READ MORE: World Cup 2026 news: England players' verdict raises questions over Thomas Tuchel's tactics after Argentina collapse

Value Bet: Spain to Win & Both Teams Not to Score

Odds: 2.65

This is where the value lies.

Spain's defensive structure has been one of the defining features of their World Cup campaign.

Rather than becoming involved in an end-to-end contest, expect Spain to slow the game, monopolise possession and limit Argentina's attacking opportunities.

If La Roja score first, they possess the composure to manage the match through controlled possession rather than chasing additional goals.

Half-Time/Full-Time

Spain / Spain

Odds: 2.55

Spain have consistently started games aggressively.

Their high press and midfield control often establish momentum early, making this one of the more attractive higher-priced markets.

If Spain score first, they are exceptionally difficult to chase.

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Anytime Goalscorer

Mikel Oyarzabal

Odds: 1.5

Spain's movement through the middle consistently creates opportunities for Oyarzabal inside the penalty area.

With Lamine Yamal stretching defences and Spain's midfield producing regular chances, the striker remains an excellent option to find the net.

First Goalscorer

Mikel Oyarzabal

Odds: 4.6

Oyarzabal's intelligent movement and Spain's tendency to begin matches on the front foot make him an attractive first-goalscorer selection.

Bets to approach cautiously

Argentina to Win

Odds: 2.45

Backing against Lionel Messi is never comfortable.

Argentina possess enormous experience and repeatedly find ways to win knockout matches.

However, Spain have looked the more complete side across the tournament and deserve favouritism.

READ MORE: Harry Kane admits England ‘tried to hold on’ after World Cup heartbreak vs Argentina

Lionel Messi Anytime Goalscorer

Odds: 1.6

Messi has enjoyed another remarkable World Cup, but Spain's defensive organisation presents arguably his toughest challenge of the tournament.

The odds leave little value given the quality of the opposition. Messi remains capable of producing a decisive moment, but Spain are unlikely to allow him the same freedom England eventually conceded in the semi-final.

Prediction

This final represents a clash between two contrasting philosophies.

Spain want long spells of possession, midfield control and territorial dominance.

Argentina are comfortable allowing opponents to have the ball before striking through moments of brilliance, particularly with Lionel Messi orchestrating attacks and Julián Álvarez stretching defences.

The key battle will be whether Spain can continue playing with the bravery they showed against France. 

If they maintain control of possession rather than retreating after taking the lead, they have the quality to deny Argentina the momentum that proved decisive against England.

ALSO CHECK OUT: World Cup 2026 news: Thomas Tuchel's tactical gamble backfires as Argentina stun England late

Best Bets

Spain to Win (1.3)

Spain & Both Teams Not to Score (2.65)

Spain/Spain (Half-Time/Full-Time) (2.55)

Predicted Score: Spain 2-0 Argentina

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