NBA Finals Game 5 betting tips: New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs predictions and preview
The New York Knicks stand one win away from the NBA championship after producing the largest comeback in NBA Finals history to defeat the San Antonio Spurs 107-106 in Game 4.
Trailing by as many as 29 points, the Knicks stormed back behind Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby before the latter's dramatic tip-in with 2.2 seconds remaining secured a 3-1 series lead.
The finals now shift back to the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio for Game 5 on Sunday, June 14, where the Spurs must win to keep their title hopes alive.
All betting lines provided per Hollywood Bets.
Match winner: Can the Spurs recover?
Winner
Spurs – 0.45
Knicks – 1.55
On paper, this looks like a favourable situation for San Antonio.
The Spurs return home, where they have generally looked more comfortable throughout the playoffs, and desperation often brings out the best in talented teams.
The concern is psychological.
San Antonio had one hand on Game 4 before a series of mistakes allowed New York back into the contest.
Victor Wembanyama missed crucial free throws, while late-game decision-making once again proved costly.
The Spurs have now let Games 1, 2 and 4 slip away despite holding winning positions at various stages.
That pattern cannot be ignored.
The Knicks, meanwhile, continue to find ways to win.
Jalen Brunson has averaged over 29 points per game in the finals, while OG Anunoby is emerging as a legitimate Finals MVP contender after his 33-point performance in Game 4.
Prediction: New York Knicks to win.
Total points: Expect another defensive battle
Totals (Including Overtime)
Over 209.5 – 0.45
Under 209.5 – 1.70
Game 4 finished with 213 total points despite the frantic finish.
However, several games in this series have been defined by defensive intensity and slower half-court possessions.
With the stakes now at their highest, expect both teams to place an even greater emphasis on limiting mistakes.
The Spurs know they cannot afford another shootout if they are to survive, while the Knicks may look to control the tempo and avoid allowing San Antonio's younger players to play in transition.
The line sits close enough to make this a difficult call, but playoff elimination games often tighten up considerably.
Prediction: Under 209.5 points.
Handicap market: Knicks continue to offer value
Handicap (0:5)
Spurs +5 – 0.95
Knicks -5 – 0.85
Three of the first four games have been decided by narrow margins.
Even when the Knicks have won, they have generally needed big fourth-quarter performances to get over the line.
That makes backing New York to cover a five-point handicap slightly risky.
If the Knicks win, there is a strong chance it comes in another close contest.
Prediction: Spurs +5 handicap.
Half-time/Full-time market
Spurs/Spurs – 0.9
Knicks/Knicks – 2.7
Knicks/Spurs – 4.8
Spurs/Knicks – 7.2
This market becomes particularly interesting given what happened in Game 4.
The Spurs dominated for long stretches before collapsing late, while the Knicks have repeatedly shown an ability to rally from difficult positions.
If San Antonio starts strongly again, the Spurs/Knicks option carries some intrigue from a value perspective.
That said, New York's confidence appears sky-high after their historic comeback.
Prediction: Knicks/Knicks.
Final verdict
Game 5 feels like the defining moment of the NBA Finals.
The Spurs have demonstrated throughout the series that they possess enough talent to challenge the Knicks. Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have all produced impactful performances.
The problem has been execution.
The Knicks continue to make winning plays in critical moments, while San Antonio have repeatedly handed opportunities back to their opponents.
Until the Spurs prove they can close out these situations, it is difficult to back them with confidence.
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Best bet
New York Knicks to win.
Value play
Under 209.5 total points
The Spurs have one final opportunity to extend the series.
The Knicks have the chance to complete one of the most memorable championship runs in franchise history.
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