Springboks vs All Blacks betting tips and predictions: Back South Africa to dominate at Ellis Park
Our Springboks vs All Blacks betting tips back South Africa to win comfortably as Rugby's Greatest Rivalry begins at Ellis Park.
The Springboks host the All Blacks on Saturday in the opening Test of Rugby's Greatest Rivalry, with South Africa entering the contest as the world's No 1-ranked side and heavy favourites with Hollywood Bets.
South Africa are priced at 0.45 to win, compared with 2.10 for New Zealand, while the Boks are 1.80 to cover a 12.5-point handicap.
Our prediction is a Springboks victory by around 15 points, with the forward battle likely to determine how much freedom either backline gets.
Springboks' pack can decide the Test
The fundamental betting angle is simple: you need to earn the right to play.
New Zealand have plenty of quality up front, with Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax providing an experienced foundation.
But South Africa's front row should have the advantage.
Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche and Wilco Louw give the Springboks enormous power at scrum time, while their carrying ability should make life difficult for the All Blacks around the park.
The second row could be even more significant. Eben Etzebeth and Ruan Nortje bring a combination of physical dominance and technical precision that gives South Africa a considerable advantage over New Zealand's younger pairing.
If the Boks establish that superiority early, New Zealand could spend long periods defending without the front-foot ball their dangerous backs require.
That makes South Africa -12.5 at 1.80 an appealing option.
READ OUR PREVIEW: Springboks vs All Blacks: Rugby's Greatest Rivalry Test one preview
All Blacks' backs remain the danger
New Zealand should not be dismissed, however.
The All Blacks have impressed during their tour, beating the Stormers 38-21, the Sharks 54-0 and the Bulls 50-19.
Their backline remains capable of punishing any lapse in South Africa's defensive structure.
Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan and Josh Moorby provide genuine pace, while Cam Roigard and Ruben Love should look to attack space whenever it appears.
Jordan in particular remains a significant threat in broken play.
Ardie Savea also returns at No 8 and will need another enormous performance against a Springbok loose-forward trio of Paul de Villiers, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese.
Back the Springboks to win comfortably
South Africa have won five of their last six meetings with New Zealand, including their record 43-10 victory in Wellington last year.
The All Blacks' tour form demonstrates that they can play fast, accurate rugby, but Ellis Park should provide a substantially tougher examination.
We expect South Africa to make the game increasingly physical and their depth to become particularly important in the second half.
That is why our main betting pick is South Africa -12.5 at 1.80.
There is also value in the winning-margin market.
South Africa by 15+ is priced at 2.25, which closely matches our prediction and offers significantly more upside than the outright market.
The try-scoring markets are intriguing, too.
If South Africa dominate territory and possession, Cheslin Kolbe at 1.20 and Kurt-Lee Arendse at 1.20 to score anytime stand out, while Will Jordan at 1.06 is the obvious All Blacks danger on the counter.
Springboks vs All Blacks betting tips
Main bet: South Africa -12.5 @ 1.80
Value bet: South Africa by 15+ @ 2.25
Outright: South Africa @ 0.45
Try-scoring angle: Cheslin Kolbe @ 1.20
Alternative try-scorer: Kurt-Lee Arendse @ 1.20
All Blacks danger: Will Jordan @ 1.06
The key to this Test should be decided before the backs get their opportunity.
If South Africa dominate the collision, scrum and breakdown battles, I don't think New Zealand will be able to live with the Springboks for 80 minutes.
Odds shown are subject to change. Bet responsibly.
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