Springboks vs All Blacks: How New Zealand turned the tables on the Boks in RGR opener
The Springboks had enough control to win the opening Test of Rugby's Greatest Rivalry, but poor execution allowed the All Blacks to withstand the pressure before turning the contest into an emphatic 33-16 victory at Ellis Park.
South Africa led 13-12 at half-time and continued to dominate the scrum and territory early in the second half, only for New Zealand to find ways out of trouble and punish mistakes.
The All Blacks ultimately scored five tries to one, ending the Springboks' 12-Test winning streak and reclaiming the number one world ranking.
It was a result that challenged plenty of the assumptions heading into the series – including my own prediction that South Africa's forward dominance would eventually prove too much for New Zealand.
The Boks had the game – but couldn't finish it
There is a temptation to look at the 17-point margin and conclude that the All Blacks simply overwhelmed South Africa. That wasn't really what happened.
For roughly 50 minutes, the Springboks had the game where they wanted it.
They dominated the scrum, controlled 61 per cent of territory and made 11 visits into the All Blacks' 22.
Yet those 11 entries produced only one try. New Zealand, by comparison, scored five tries from nine visits into South Africa's 22.
That is the game in a nutshell.
The Springboks repeatedly created the platform but failed to convert it. Malcolm Marx's dropped ball with the line at his mercy before half-time was one obvious example, while South Africa's decision-making inside the 22 repeatedly let New Zealand off the hook.
Rassie Erasmus subsequently admitted as much, taking responsibility for some of the tactical calls and acknowledging that South Africa had 11 opportunities inside the 22 but converted only one into a reward.
And there was another layer to it: New Zealand forced many of those mistakes.
The All Blacks repeatedly attacked the ball in contact, something Erasmus admitted South Africa had not anticipated to the same extent.
The Boks lost possession 23 times, an extraordinary number at this level.
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Wiese, Nche and Louw stood up
Despite the result, there were some outstanding individual Springbok performances.
Jasper Wiese was comfortably the standout.
He carried 18 times for 62 metres, according to SA Rugby Magazine's match data, while other reporting credited him with 95 metres; whichever statistical feed is used, the underlying picture is the same – he was South Africa's primary source of go-forward and consistently crossed the gainline.
Wiese also won a turnover and made seven tackles, but his biggest contribution was the repeated momentum he generated with ball in hand.
Ox Nche and Wilco Louw were similarly impressive.
South Africa's scrum was a genuine weapon, with Louw forcing penalties in the 26th and 46th minutes and Nche repeatedly putting the All Blacks' front row under pressure.
RugbyPass rated Louw 8.5 and Nche 8, while noting that New Zealand's starting front row struggled to cope.
Damian Willemse also quietly delivered what was required.
He was composed under the high ball and dealt well with New Zealand's kicking strategy, although his influence diminished as the game became increasingly chaotic.
The problems were concentrated around the half-backs.
Grant Williams never managed to establish control and was repeatedly harassed around the ruck.
His charged-down box kick by Fabian Holland produced the try that changed the momentum of the match, while his decision-making and speed of distribution never allowed South Africa to consistently dictate the tempo.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu had flashes but similarly failed to stamp his authority on the game, particularly inside the All Blacks' 22.
His shift to full-back later in the contest also failed to produce the attacking influence South Africa needed.
Roigard, Barrett and Jordan changed the game
And then there was the All Blacks.
My pre-Test assessment underestimated their ability to survive the physical battle. They didn't just survive it – eventually, they won the battle of attrition.
Cam Roigard was central to that.
His game management, kicking and decision-making gave New Zealand an outlet whenever South Africa began squeezing them.
His cut-out pass helped create Will Jordan's opening try, while his ability to vary the point of attack prevented the Boks from simply locking onto the All Blacks' forward carriers.
For me, that makes Roigard one of the biggest tactical questions heading into Test two.
South Africa need to find an answer for him.
Jordie Barrett was exceptional.
The numbers back up what looked like an extraordinary defensive performance: 15 tackles and five turnovers, both match highs.
Two of those interventions were particularly significant, including the turnover that stopped Malcolm Marx from completing a potential try and another huge defensive intervention on Jasper Wiese.
Quinn Tupaea was another player who impressed. His defensive work was excellent and his 50:22 in the second half was a huge moment, putting the All Blacks back into attacking territory and helping set up the sequence that eventually produced their decisive score.
And Will Jordan did what Will Jordan does.
Two tries took his international tally to 53, but the tries themselves weren't necessarily the most impressive part of his performance.
His aerial work, breakdown intervention and ability to turn a defensive situation into an attacking one were crucial. He was eventually named Player of the Match.
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The All Blacks' bench deserves enormous credit
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the entire Test was what happened when the replacements arrived.
We expected the Springboks' depth, particularly their front-row replacements, to make the All Blacks pay late in the contest.
Instead, New Zealand's bench helped turn the scrum around.
George Bower and Fletcher Newell provided a significant improvement after Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax departed, while Roigard himself credited the reserve front row with bringing fresh energy into the contest.
That was crucial because South Africa had spent much of the first hour building their strategy around scrum dominance.
Once that advantage disappeared, the All Blacks had something they hadn't had earlier: territorial and scoreboard control without constantly having to defend their own line.
From there, the game became much more comfortable for New Zealand.
Two late yellow cards compounded South Africa's problems, but by then the All Blacks had already established a 26-16 lead.
Will Jordan's second try simply put the result beyond doubt.
A warning shot rather than a series verdict
The most important takeaway for me is that the result doesn't necessarily invalidate the original assessment of these teams.
It does, however, change the question.
The Boks can dominate the All Blacks physically. We saw that. They can win the scrum, generate front-foot ball and repeatedly put New Zealand under pressure.
But the All Blacks have now demonstrated that they can absorb that pressure, stay in the fight and punish the smallest cracks.
South Africa's challenge now isn't necessarily to become more dominant. It is to become more efficient.
Erasmus himself put it bluntly afterwards: the Boks knew what they needed to do; they simply didn't do it.
And that may be the most encouraging thing for South Africa ahead of Cape Town.
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