Nations Championship betting tips: New Zealand vs Italy predictions and best bets
New Zealand welcome Italy to Sky Stadium on Saturday, July 11, 2026, looking to build on their thrilling opening Nations Championship victory over France with another convincing performance in front of their home supporters.
Despite making five changes to the starting XV, the All Blacks retain a powerful spine led by captain Ardie Savea, while Italy arrive with several experienced internationals back in the fold as they look to produce a major upset.
Italy have developed into a far more competitive Test nation over the past few seasons, but winning away against New Zealand remains one of rugby's toughest assignments.
All odds provided per Hollywood Bets.
Team news and analysis
Head coach Dave Rennie has opted for continuity after edging France 34-32 last weekend, with Damian McKenzie retaining the No.15 jersey and Ruben Love continuing at fly-half.
The Hurricanes combination of Cam Roigard, Ruben Love and Jordie Barrett remains one of the All Blacks' biggest strengths, offering familiarity and cohesion in key decision-making areas.
Roigard's tempo around the breakdown continues to inject pace into New Zealand's attack, while Barrett's experience provides composure outside his young fly-half.
Savea once again headlines the forward pack and will be expected to dominate the collision area alongside Wallace Sititi and Luke Jacobson, while Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax provide one of the strongest front rows in international rugby.
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Allan and Lynagh return
Italy, meanwhile, welcome back several experienced campaigners.
Tommaso Allan resumes at full-back, while Louis Lynagh returns on the wing and the influential midfield pairing of Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello provides creativity and defensive organisation.
Fly-half Paolo Garbisi remains Italy's chief playmaker and will need to control territory if the visitors are to remain competitive.
The concern for Italy lies up front.
Although Michele Lamaro leads with customary intensity and Ross Vintcent continues to develop into an outstanding No.8, matching New Zealand physically for 80 minutes is an entirely different challenge.
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Best bets
New Zealand to win
Odds: 0.009
There are few safer selections on this weekend's rugby coupon.
New Zealand were tested by France but still found a way to win, while Italy now face an even sterner challenge against a side that has settled combinations throughout the squad.
Prediction: New Zealand to win
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New Zealand -29.5 Handicap
Odds: 0.7
This looks like the standout handicap market.
Italy should compete early, but New Zealand's depth off the bench and superior conditioning could see the score stretch significantly during the final quarter.
Prediction: Best Bet
Winning Margin: New Zealand by 15+
Odds: 0.12
The All Blacks possess too much firepower across the park.
Even if Italy remain competitive for large periods, New Zealand's ability to convert pressure into tries usually separates them late.
Prediction: New Zealand by 15+
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Point Range: 42-48
Odds: 7.6
If New Zealand control possession and territory, this total offers appealing value.
Italy have improved defensively, but the All Blacks' attacking structure should generate multiple scoring opportunities.
Prediction: Value Pick
Prediction
Italy deserve enormous credit for the strides they have made over the past few years.
However, travelling to New Zealand remains one of the most difficult assignments in world rugby.
With Ardie Savea leading from the front, Cam Roigard dictating the tempo and Damian McKenzie orchestrating from the backfield, the All Blacks should gradually wear Italy down before pulling away during the second half.
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Predicted score
New Zealand 45-17 Italy
Best Bets
New Zealand to win
New Zealand -29.5 Handicap (Best Bet)
New Zealand by 15+ winning margin
Point Range: 42-48 (Value Pick)
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