Springboks vs All Blacks: Betting tips, predictions and preview for Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Test two
The Springboks return to DHL Stadium on Saturday knowing they must beat the All Blacks to prevent Rugby's Greatest Rivalry series from slipping decisively away from them, with South Africa priced at 1.43 favourites by Betway.
New Zealand stunned the Springboks 33-16 at Ellis Park last weekend, ending a 12-Test unbeaten run and taking a 1-0 lead in the four-Test series.
But the first Test also exposed a peculiar contradiction: South Africa dominated much of the physical battle and entered the All Blacks' 22 11 times, yet converted those opportunities into just one try.
With wet weather expected in Cape Town, the contest could again revolve around set-piece pressure, territory and which side makes better decisions in the opposition 22.
Siya Kolisi's return is huge for the Springboks
Siya Kolisi returns to captain the Springboks after missing the first Test, having successfully completed his fitness requirements following his hamstring problem.
His leadership and experience are invaluable, particularly in a match where South Africa must respond rather than panic.
However, Paul de Villiers' absence is a significant downside.
The youngster was one of the Springboks' best performers in Johannesburg and made a major impact around the breakdown and in open play.
Cameron Hanekom now provides the back-row cover, while Jasper Wiese again starts at No 8 after producing a superb first Test.
Wiese carried 17 times in Johannesburg, almost twice as often as any other Springbok, while South Africa finished with 286 post-contact metres to New Zealand's 191.
The same front row of Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw starts again. That battle could ultimately determine the match.
South Africa's scrum was dominant in the opening Test, but New Zealand's replacement front row changed the momentum late on.
The All Blacks subsequently earned a crucial scrum penalty and have made changes of their own in the front five.
READ MORE: Springboks vs All Blacks: How New Zealand turned the tables on the Boks in RGR opener
Pollard injury changes the equation
The biggest late development is Handre Pollard's withdrawal after suffering a calf injury in training.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is consequently restored to starting fly-half, with Manie Libbok coming onto the bench.
That is a major tactical change given the wet conditions expected in Cape Town, where Pollard's territorial kicking and game management would have been particularly useful.
Feinberg-Mngomezulu struggled in the first Test, particularly with his kicking, and now gets an immediate opportunity to respond.
Cobus Reinach also starts at scrum-half after Grant Williams was ruled out, meaning the Springboks will need considerably more control from their experienced No 9.
The backline must also be better. The late reshuffling in Johannesburg after Kurt-Lee Arendse and Cheslin Kolbe left the field contributed to an increasingly chaotic attacking structure, something Rassie Erasmus has acknowledged.
Kolbe is now fit enough to return, while Arendse has been withdrawn from the match-day squad.
South Africa Rugby confirmed the change after Kolbe recovered from the issues that forced him off last week.
Damian Willemse is another player who needs to be more involved.
His quality is unquestionable, but South Africa need their full-back influencing the game more consistently.
Can the All Blacks repeat the formula?
New Zealand deserve enormous credit for the first-Test victory.
The All Blacks survived a sustained period of South African pressure before turning the match on its head, with Cam Roigard's game management and Will Jordan's finishing particularly influential.
Roigard remains one of the biggest threats to South Africa.
His kicking, decision-making and ability to accelerate the All Blacks' attack gives New Zealand something the Springboks struggled to contain.
Jordie Barrett, Quinn Tupaea, Ruben Love and Damian McKenzie will again need to make good decisions behind him, while Codie Taylor and Ardie Savea remain central to the All Blacks' ability to withstand South African physicality.
New Zealand have made three starting changes.
George Bower replaces Ethan de Groot, who remains unavailable following HIA protocols, Simon Parker comes into the back row and Leroy Carter starts on the wing.
Patrick Tuipulotu provides lock cover after playing against the Lions earlier in the week.
That midweek fixture is worth considering, too.
The All Blacks' ability to grind out the first Test was impressive, but there will be tired bodies in the squad after a physically demanding tour schedule.
Springboks vs All Blacks betting tips
All odds provided per Betway.
The outright market has South Africa at 1.43, with New Zealand 3.20 and the draw 26.00.
The Springboks are also 1.36 in the Draw No Bet market, but neither price particularly appeals to me.
The better value comes from the handicap and winning-margin markets.
South Africa -6.5 at 1.76 is my preferred main bet.
The Springboks were significantly better than the final 17-point defeat suggested for large portions of the first Test, and their set-piece advantage should remain considerable.
I also like Under 52.5 points at 1.75.
The forecast points towards wet conditions, while both teams have enough defensive quality to produce a contest where territory and kicking become increasingly important.
For a bigger-price option, South Africa to win by 1-7 points at 4.00 stands out. That fits my expected shape of the match far better than the 15+ margin available at 3.10.
The first-half handicap also has appeal, with South Africa -2.5 at 1.73.
If the Springboks execute their set-piece strategy properly, they should establish territorial control early.
Prediction: Springboks to edge it
This should be much closer than my pre-first-Test prediction suggested.
The All Blacks have established a formula that works, and they deserve credit for turning a game in which they were under pressure into a convincing victory.
But every Test presents a different tactical challenge.
South Africa should dominate enough of the physical battle again, while Kolisi's return restores leadership and the return of Kolbe strengthens the back three.
Despite the wet conditions, I expect the Springboks to simplify their approach and put greater, sustained pressure on New Zealand up front.
Prediction: South Africa 27-20 New Zealand.
A lower-scoring 19-12 type of result is also entirely plausible.
Best bets:
South Africa -6.5 - 1.76
Under 52.5 points - 1.75
South Africa to win by 1-7 - 4.00
South Africa -2.5 first half - 1.73
MORE RGR CONTENT: Springboks vs All Blacks betting tips and predictions: Back South Africa to dominate at Ellis Park
Springboks team
15 Damian Willemse; 14 Cheslin Kolbe; 13 Jesse Kriel; 12 Damian de Allende; 11 Ethan Hooker; 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu; 9 Cobus Reinach; 8 Jasper Wiese; 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit; 6 Siya Kolisi (captain); 5 Ruan Nortje; 4 Eben Etzebeth; 3 Wilco Louw; 2 Malcolm Marx; 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, Andre Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Morne van den Berg, Manie Libbok.
All Blacks team
15 Damian McKenzie; 14 Will Jordan; 13 Quinn Tupaea; 12 Jordie Barrett; 11 Leroy Carter; 10 Ruben Love; 9 Cam Roigard; 8 Ardie Savea (captain); 7 Luke Jacobson; 6 Simon Parker; 5 Tupou Vaa'i; 4 Fabian Holland; 3 Tyrel Lomax; 2 Codie Taylor; 1 George Bower.
Replacements: Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia, Fletcher Newell, Patrick Tuipulotu, Peter Lakai, Kyle Preston, Anton Lienert-Brown, Josh Moorby.
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