Springboks vs All Blacks RGR Test 3 betting tips and predictions: Boks backed to win bruising battle
The Springboks and All Blacks return to Johannesburg for the third Test of Rugby's Greatest Rivalry on Saturday, with the series finely poised at 1-1.
New Zealand won the opening encounter 33-16 at Ellis Park before South Africa responded with a 33-26 victory in Cape Town, setting up a pivotal third meeting at FNB Stadium.
The All Blacks have made three changes to their forward pack, while the Springboks have restored their preferred starting front row of Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw.
With both teams having already endured two bruising Tests in successive weeks, this could become another battle of attrition - and that is a scenario which should favour South Africa.
South Africa to target the All Blacks at set-piece
The biggest reason to back the Springboks is the potential for this match to become a pressure game.
New Zealand were dangerous in wider areas during the second Test, repeatedly finding opportunities when they moved the point of contact away from South Africa's rush defence.
Their ability to shift the ball quickly remains the greatest threat to the Springboks.
But the All Blacks also showed vulnerabilities.
Their lineout was disrupted repeatedly in Cape Town, with Eben Etzebeth proving particularly influential.
South Africa's defensive pressure also contributed to New Zealand struggling to turn considerable possession into sustained scoreboard pressure.
The All Blacks actually finished the second Test with more possession, carries, metres, clean breaks and defenders beaten, yet South Africa won 33-26.
New Zealand also scored four tries to three, demonstrating just how much the Boks were able to achieve through territory, pressure, turnovers and taking points when they became available.
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Power game key
Now Nche, Marx and Louw return to the starting front row.
That feels significant.
The trio represents arguably South Africa's strongest scrummaging combination, and Erasmus will surely want to test New Zealand repeatedly in that area.
The All Blacks have changed their hooker as Asafo Aumua replaces Codie Taylor, while Sam Darry replaces Fabian Holland in the second row.
Peter Lakai also comes into the back row.
Taylor's omission from the matchday 23 is particularly interesting. His experience and set-piece ability would appear valuable in exactly the sort of contest New Zealand are likely to encounter.
Holland dropping to the bench also removes one of the All Blacks' most effective physical forwards from the starting pack.
Darry is a capable player, but South Africa will have no reason to alter their approach: make the forwards work, apply pressure and force New Zealand to play from uncomfortable positions.
Kolbe at full-back changes the dynamic
The other major alteration for South Africa is Cheslin Kolbe moving from the wing to full-back, with Kurt-Lee Arendse returning on the right wing.
It is not necessarily an upgrade in every aspect.
Kolbe is naturally smaller than Damian Willemse and has less experience at full-back, while Willemse's injury has forced Erasmus into the change. However, Kolbe brings qualities that can still make the position work.
He is excellent under the high ball, an outstanding goalkicker and one of the most dangerous counter-attacking players in the game.
His goal-kicking could also prove decisive again.
Kolbe went 7/7 from the tee in Cape Town, scoring 18 points, and South Africa's ability to turn pressure into points was ultimately what separated the teams.
Arendse's return also restores a specialist finisher to the right wing, giving South Africa another genuine attacking threat when possession does get into wider areas.
The key will be whether the Boks can prevent New Zealand from consistently reaching those areas in the first place.
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The battle of attrition could decide it
There is another factor which should not be overlooked: fatigue.
This is the third consecutive weekend of Test rugby for many of these players. Both squads have already been involved in two extremely physical encounters, and there will inevitably be sore bodies on the field at FNB Stadium.
That should favour South Africa.
The Boks have the deeper forward resources and can maintain their physical intensity through the bench.
Marx, Nche and Louw starting also means Erasmus has another wave of heavyweight forwards available as replacements.
Pace and space
New Zealand's best route remains their pace and ability to create space. Cam Roigard, Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan and Jordie Barrett are capable of exploiting even small defensive lapses.
But the All Blacks need their pack to provide the platform first.
They scored four tries in Cape Town and still lost because South Africa controlled enough of the key moments.
New Zealand cannot afford another performance where their attacking quality is undermined by set-piece problems and inefficient use of possession.
Rennie has already acknowledged the need for improvement after two slow starts, while the All Blacks' selection changes show an attempt to address those problems.
For me, though, that is too much to fix in one week.
The Springboks should once again make this ugly, physical and uncomfortable.
If they can win the scrum battle, disrupt the lineout and maintain their pressure defence, New Zealand's exciting backline may spend too much of the afternoon operating from poor field position.
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Springboks vs All Blacks betting tips
South Africa -7.5 @ 1.84
This is the main selection.
South Africa are strong enough to win this match, but the more important question for the handicap is whether they can create the type of pressure that turns a close game into a two-score victory.
With their preferred front row starting, a powerful bench available and Kolbe capable of converting penalties, the Boks have the tools to do it.
South Africa to win by 8-14 points @ 3.70
This is the more aggressive value play.
I expect the All Blacks to remain competitive throughout, particularly through their dangerous backline, but South Africa's physicality should eventually create separation.
A victory by around 10-13 points fits the expected pattern perfectly.
Under 57.5 points @ 1.71
The two Tests have produced 49 and 59 total points respectively, but I expect the third meeting to be more attritional.
South Africa should look to squeeze New Zealand territorially, force errors and take three points when they are available rather than constantly chase tries.
New Zealand's attacking quality makes a completely low-scoring match unlikely, but 58 points feels high enough to make the under interesting.
Prediction: South Africa 29-16 New Zealand
I expect another gritty Springbok performance.
The All Blacks will threaten them in the wider channels and should have periods where their backline causes problems, but South Africa's set-piece power, defensive pressure and ability to turn penalties into points should ultimately decide the contest.
Boks by 13.
Expect a try from the hosts, with Kolbe contributing heavily from the tee.
Springboks vs All Blacks line-ups
South Africa 23
15. Cheslin Kolbe
14. Kurt-Lee Arendse
13. Jesse Kriel
13. Damian de Allende
11. Ethan Hooker
10. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu
9. Cobus Reinach
8. Jasper Wiese
7. Pieter-Steph du Toit
6. Siya Kolisi (c)
5. Ruan Nortje
4. Eben Etzebeth
3. Wilco Louw
2. Malcolm Marx
1. Ox Nche
Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, Andre Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Morne van den Berg, Manie Libbok.
New Zealand 23
15. Damian McKenzie
14. Will Jordan
13. Quinn Tupaea
12. Jordie Barrett
11. Leroy Carter
10. Ruben Love
9. Cam Roigard
8. Ardie Savea (c)
7. Luke Jacobson
6. Peter Lakai
5. Sam Darry
4. Tupou Vaa'i
3. Tyrel Lomax
2. Asafo Aumua
1. George Bower
Replacements: Samisoni Taukei'aho, Xavier Numia, Fletcher Newell, Fabian Holland, Wallace Sititi, Kyle Preston, Anton Lienert-Brown, Josh Moorby.
Odds provided per 10bet. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly.
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