Springboks vs All Blacks RGR Test 3: New Zealand's backline cannot keep masking its forward problems
The Springboks are now one victory away from completing a Rugby's Greatest Rivalry series triumph after beating the All Blacks 29-24 in a thrilling third Test at FNB Stadium.
South Africa trailed 12-5 early on before recovering to level the contest at half-time, then produced another powerful second-half display to move 2-1 ahead in the four-Test series.
Both sides scored four tries, underlining just how competitive the contest was, but once again there was a familiar theme to New Zealand's defeat: an outstanding running game operating without a consistently reliable platform.
The All Blacks' backs continue to demonstrate why they are among the most dangerous attacking players in world rugby.
But when their forwards begin losing the collision battle, their set-piece deteriorates and their kicking game fails to relieve pressure, that brilliance becomes increasingly difficult to sustain.
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All Blacks' attack
Will Jordan was dangerous again. Jordie Barrett repeatedly found ways to influence the game.
Cam Roigard continued to create opportunities from difficult situations, while Quinn Tupaea produced another physically impressive display in midfield.
The most remarkable aspect of the All Blacks' attack is their ability to create something from almost nothing.
They do not necessarily need perfectly constructed front-foot ball to threaten the Springboks.
Their backs can break from deep, keep the ball alive and shift the point of attack before South Africa's rush defence has time to reset.
That was particularly evident in the first half.
Yet there is a limit to how long even that kind of brilliance can compensate for problems elsewhere.
Attrition on the pack
New Zealand's pack began to lose its influence as the match wore on, and South Africa increasingly dictated where the game was played.
Planet Rugby described the Boks' forward pressure as decisive, while other analysis highlighted the difference made by their physicality after half-time.
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Savea's injury exposed the lack of forward leadership
The loss of Ardie Savea was enormous.
The All Blacks captain had already scored twice and was producing the sort of performance they needed from their most influential forward before a shoulder injury forced him off before half-time.
New Zealand have since confirmed that Savea suffered a dislocated shoulder and will miss the fourth Test in Baltimore.
His departure felt like more than the loss of a world-class number eight.
It removed one of New Zealand's primary sources of leadership, carrying power and breakdown presence at precisely the moment the Springboks were beginning to impose themselves physically.
The decision not to select Codie Taylor for the third Test now looks particularly questionable.
Asafo Aumua is an excellent athlete and contributed to the All Blacks' attack, while Samisoni Taukei'aho eventually came off the bench and scored a late try.
But in a Test where New Zealand desperately needed stability at the set-piece and experience when the pressure intensified, Taylor's absence was difficult to understand.
New Zealand have since included Taylor in the squad travelling to Baltimore, alongside Taukei'aho and Fabian Holland.
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Selecting Darry over Holland
The second major selection decision was moving Holland to the bench and bringing Sam Darry into the starting lock combination.
Darry has qualities and can contribute in the right game, but against South Africa's particular strengths, Holland's physicality and experience looked like a more natural fit.
When the All Blacks needed their pack to withstand South Africa's pressure, they needed players capable of absorbing repeated collisions and maintaining the fight at the breakdown.
Instead, the pack eventually began to disappear from the contest.
And once that happens against the Springboks, the backline is fighting an uphill battle.
Boks keep finding ways to win
What makes South Africa so difficult to beat is that they are no longer dependent on one particular route to victory.
Their forwards remain the foundation.
Ox Nche and Malcolm Marx again produced a devastating combination, while Wilco Louw was strong at scrum time.
Pieter-Steph du Toit was immense defensively and Jasper Wiese continued the outstanding consistency he has shown throughout this series.
But the Boks also found ways to attack.
The early loss of Cheslin Kolbe, who has since been confirmed to have suffered a broken jaw, forced Manie Libbok into the game after only 10 minutes.
Rather than disrupting South Africa completely, it changed the way they attacked.
Libbok deserves credit for that.
Libbok’s influence
He brought a different rhythm to the Springboks' attack and developed an increasingly noticeable connection with Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, who shifted to full-back following Kolbe's departure.
Feinberg-Mngomezulu was hardly flawless, particularly after his early yellow card, but his work in the backfield was strong and he recovered to kick the penalty that eventually put the result beyond New Zealand's reach.
That adaptability is one of the defining characteristics of this Springbok side.
They lost their starting full-back after 10 minutes.
They spent 10 minutes with 14 men.
They conceded two early tries to Savea.
And they still found a way to turn the match around.
Hooker continues to announce himself
If there was one Springbok player who embodied the performance, it was Ethan Hooker.
His Player of the Match display was built around exactly the qualities South Africa needed.
He was powerful in collisions, excellent under the high ball and constantly involved defensively.
He also showed an appetite to move into the midfield and look for work rather than simply waiting for the ball on the wing.
His development is becoming one of the most exciting stories of this Springbok side.
Hooker is increasingly looking like a player who can influence games regardless of whether the ball is being distributed to him.
His ability to contribute in the air, in contact and defensively gives Erasmus another extremely versatile weapon.
Midfield the highlight
And then there was the midfield.
Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel were outstanding.
Their experience was particularly important because New Zealand's backs continued to create opportunities, yet the Springbok centres repeatedly made the important defensive interventions while also providing the power to break through the All Blacks' line.
Kriel's try was a perfect example. He saw space, fended off Leroy Carter, accelerated through the gap, and finished a decisive attacking movement, while De Allende's power and acceleration had already helped create opportunities earlier in the contest.
That is the difference between simply having dangerous backs and having a complete attacking unit.
Morne van den Berg brought another dimension
Another player deserving recognition is Morne van den Berg.
His introduction from the bench brought immediate energy to both sides of the ball.
There was something reminiscent of a young Faf de Klerk about his performance: lively around the breakdown, willing to defend aggressively and constantly looking to inject tempo into South Africa's attack.
He did not need to dominate the game. He simply changed its energy.
That is precisely what Erasmus wants from his replacements.
The Springboks' bench has become one of their greatest competitive advantages because the intensity does not disappear when the starters leave the field. If anything, the pressure can increase.
New Zealand have to solve the platform problem
That is ultimately where this rivalry stands after three Tests.
The All Blacks have enough attacking talent to trouble South Africa.
They might even have enough attacking talent to beat them in Baltimore.
But they cannot keep asking their backs to perform miracles without a reliable foundation underneath them.
Their scrum has been under pressure. Their lineout has been inconsistent. Their breakdown work has not matched South Africa's.
Their kicking game has too often surrendered possession or territory, and their forwards have struggled to maintain their influence once the physical demands of the match accumulate.
Meanwhile, South Africa keep bringing another wave of physicality.
The irony is that the All Blacks' attacking game is good enough to make this series far closer than the forward battle might suggest. They scored four tries in the third Test and repeatedly threatened South Africa from broken-field situations.
Key factors heading into Baltimore Test
If the All Blacks' forwards can stay in the fight for 80 minutes, their backs are dangerous enough to beat anyone.
If they cannot, South Africa will keep doing what they have done throughout this series: absorb the early threat, make the game increasingly physical, and take control when the opposition begins to tire.
And with Savea, Tupaea and Luke Jacobson now ruled out of the Baltimore Test, New Zealand's depth and leadership will be tested even further.
The All Blacks still have a chance to level the series.
But the same question remains - Can their forwards give their potent backline the platform it deserves?
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